MORE OIL IN KURDISTAN: Mirawa Discovery
The Marathon –Total –KRG exploration venture in the Harir Block of Kurdistan has recently added to the petroleum resources balance sheet of the Region. Their 4265 metres Mirawa-1 exploration well was announced as a discovery on 30th October 2013. This discovery is one more observed successful test of excellent RSDD-H anomalies in this emerging major extension to the greater Zagros Deformed
Belt petroleum province.
MIRAWA-1 DISCOVERY: This well encountered multiple intervals of oil and gas in Jurassic and Triassic reservoirs from 1766 metres to TD. The well flowed high quality 39-45° crude oil at cumulatively more than 11,000 bopd (equipment constrained) from its Jurassic reservoirs and approximately 72MMCFD and 1,700 BPD of condensate from the Triassic.
RSDD-H PROFILE: The "Greater Mirawa" prospective complex presents as a strong, high intensity group of spectral anomalies.The discovery well locates on the displayed RSDD-H IPD image in the heart of the main southern anomaly. It appears to sit near optimally on the eastern core of this large feature. This main Mirawa prospect has a western undrilled satellite anomaly with two intense spectral cores. It has a total gross anomalous area of 63km2.
The strong anomaly to the northwest of the Mirawa complex is the “Jisik” prospect that the JV Group is now proceeding to drill at the Jisik-1 location. It has a gross anomalous area of 50km2. It is predicted here to become another discovery (P.Discovery >50%) as the anomaly is highly analogous to the current Mirawa discovery and the well location appears adequate for an effective test.
PROSPECTIVE TERRAINS: This district is of rugged and mountainous relief: the Landsat 8 and ASTER GDEM images illustrate. The observed anomalies are not simple relief-reflecting features.
PROSPECTIVITY PROGNOSIS: Given the substantial hydrocarbon column(s) present in the Mirawa-1 well it is expected that the remainder of the Mirawa complex including the western anomaly will prove productive within the inner, higher intensity core areas (inside the pale contour on the displays). Several clear step-out locations beckon. Mirawa is forecast to become another major field in the district. The Jisik anomaly is likely also to prove productive with a probable productive area there too within the higher intensity core area.
PETROLEUM RESOURCE POTENTIAL ("PRP"): Based on the indicated gross areal extent of these anomalies (63km2 for Mirawa / West Mirawa and 50km2 for Jisik) as surface surrogates for the actual subsurface traps, it is possible to provide simplistic geological modelling scenarios of their petroleum resource potential:
Input Petroleum Resource volume factors per unit trap area ("PRVFs") are working assumptions based on other Kurdistan pools and discoveries. Clearly, the Operator and JV Group will have much tighter, fact based inputs when they model and assess the PRP of Mirawa and the Jisik prospect - except at this time they will not have a confident estimate of actual trap areas, just of perceived and mapped (possible trap) seismic closures. Likewise, the net effective reservoir capacity is highly uncertain, as the Operator indicates it is a fractured carbonate play - notoriously difficult to predict in such tectonic trap geometries. Application of a wide spread in the PRVF range is prudent for present.
Assumed likely trap areas (for present) are the indicated inner, higher intensity cores. This probably leaves some unrecorded marginal upside in the outer non-core lower intensity envelopes.
It is recognised that this PRP outlook is subjective, deterministic, and carries major uncertainties at this juncture. For present, these modelled resources should be considered as Prospective Resources although the Mirawa-1 well results will lead to early progression of a local volume into the Contingent Resources category.
It is emphasised that this PRP outlook is just that - a geological outlook. Nevertheless, it provides an opening sense as to the likely petroleum materiality of this district. It models as follows:
GROSS UNRISKED PRP: The current Mirawa pool discovery could be half a billion barrels recoverable, possibly more, Mirawa West a little less and Jisik of a similar order. The entire “3-feature” Greater Mirawa complex could be 1-1.5+ billion BOEs recoverable. It appears that Kurdistan has another future production hub emerging here.
GROSS RISKED PRP: One of the benefits of having early "full district" RSDD-H mapping of the prospective anomalies with a calibrating "on anomaly" discovery is the significant reduction of exploration risk on the remaining untested and unappraised sub-areas of the prospective complex. This enables assignment of high P.Discovery factors to the unrisked volumes and significant early upgrade to the Gross Risked PRP. Subjectively, it is modelled that the Gross Risked PRP of Greater Mirawa is in excess of 1,000MMBOE at the "mid-case" level.
PRP PROGRESSION: In addition to conventional prospect development, drilling and early appraisal activities by the JV Group, it is considered that complementing high resolution RSDD-H surveying of Greater Mirawa could now be beneficially undertaken. This would refine the prospect area mapping and PRP modelling, providing a range of differentiated "trap areas" at low, mid and high end cases and movement from deterministic to probabilistic PRP estimation. It would also better identify the internal characterisitcs of the anomalies across the trap areas and lead to prognosis of possible reservoir "sweet spots" of intense fracturing and/or some matrix porosity. At present, the anomalies all appear "noisy" at first pass internal characterisation, indicative indeed of a fractured reservour system rather than of a clean homogeneous matrix pore volume dominated set of reservoirs.
DISTRICT POTENTIAL: Scotforth has similar mapped out prospect inventory throughout the Kurdistan Zagros petroleum province. Many large new discoveries are yet to come. Some await new licensees.